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8/1/2025
WT Staff
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Friday August 1, 2025 418 pm EDT
South Ocean current has taken a U-turn, what does it mean?
Climatologists at Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre (NOC) in the United Kingdom have reported a disturbing phenomenon in the Antarctic Ocean. The Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) has changed direction for the first time in history. Ten authors at NOC agree, they were not expecting anything like this.
Silvano, et al, tracking satellite real-time conditions, report an increase in the salinity of surface water south of the 50th parallel since 2015. Now ten years running, this trend can be categorized as an event. A catastrophic climate event. The report, published June 30, 2025 in the journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA) demonstrates that surface salinity is increasing, while the ice sheet is shrinking. The surface water should be less saline around the melting ice, but this is no longer the case.
The Earth's Radiation Balance (ERB) is the difference between solar energy coming into the atmosphere and the heat units emitted back to space, also called the energy balance. The planet has been steadily heating since the 1880's, with extra heat units and carbon dioxide stored in the heavy, highly saline water layer near the bottom of the ocean. The upper ocean stratification has been freshening with accelerated polar ice melt, which, if the fresher water remains in the surface layer, supports ice formation. The ice sheet has, so far, been alternating between melting and freezing with periods of ice gain between seasons of loss. The disturbing effect of deep saline water moving up to the surface is, the ice sheet may not be making any more gains.
The current reversal was confirmed by marine scientists at El Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) in Barcelona. An article published July 1, 2025 says,
"We are witnessing a true change in ocean properties in the Southern Hemisphere—something we've never seen before. Climate models predict freshening of surface waters in the Southern Ocean, while we observe the opposite, an increase in salinity", explains Antonio Turiel, ICM-CSIC researcher and co-author of the study. "While the world is debating the potential collapse of the AMOC in the North Atlantic, we're seeing that the Southern Ocean is drastically changing, as sea ice coverage declines and the upper ocean is becoming saltier. This could have unprecedented global climate impacts."
Climate scientists around the world are gravely concerned. The implications of the current reversal are accelerated global warming and more erratic weather everywhere. "The stunning reversal of ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere confirms the global climate system has entered a catastrophic phase."
Ben See, Climatologist
The International Environment Forum also responded, with a breakdown of the potential implications. An article published on the IEF website July 1, 2025 posits, "The implications are far-reaching as changes in this remote region can disrupt global ocean currents, affect climate patterns, and alter ecosystems far beyond the Antarctic. We might be closer to passing a tipping point than expected and we have potentially entered a new state defined by persistent sea ice decline, sustained by a newly discovered feedback loop. The loss of Antarctic sea ice has far-reaching global consequences. As the ice melts, more heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, fuelling more intense storms and accelerating climate change. This, in turn, contributes to extreme heatwaves on land and further melting of the Antarctic ice sheet – leading to rising sea levels around the world. Diminished sea ice also threatens vital habitats for penguins and other species that depend on the ice for survival."
The troubling consequences of climate in crisis include sea level rise, far beyond the predictive modeling that prompted global action to transition our energy systems to Net Zero by 2050. Zurich Insurance Group projects more than a billion refugees looking for new homes by 2050. The meter is running on climate action, WT will continue to report on innovations and successes in mitigation and adjustment responses here.
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