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9/27/2026
WT Staff
 Got water questions? Give us a call at 877-52-WATER (877-529-2837), or email us at info@wtny.us
September 28, 2026 258 pm EDT
Earth Overshoot, Water Bankruptcy and Warming Induced Effects. Is there still time to make the hard changes?
The morning of August 26, 2026 a flash flood wiped out everything in its path, burying entire villages in Nepal. The Associated Press report of Sep 16 said, "More than 1,300 people were killed and over 5,000 remain missing after a massive section of rock and overlying glacier collapsed near Nepal's border with China. The resulting torrent of water, ice, boulders and sediment swept through communities along the Trishuli River corridor and caused billions of dollars in damage."
World Weather Attribution reported the cause on Sep 17. "While initial reports suggested that the event may have been caused by an earthquake, later evidence indicates that the recorded seismic activity was actually linked to the rapid collapse of roughly 2 square kilometers of rock wall and glacier ice (US Geological Society Earthquake Hazards Program, August 26, 2026; Center for Hydrology and Water Resources Research, 2026)." This was not classified as an extreme weather event, rather the consequence of a climate trend that weakened the glacier over time.
Brittanica defines CLIMATE:
conditions of the atmosphere at a particular location over a long period of time; it is the long-term summation of the atmospheric elements that, over short time periods, constitute weather. These elements are solar radiation, temperature, humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and wind.
Current Climate Check-in
Canada's Changing Climate 2026 report of September 3, summarizes the second round of investigations led by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), into how, where and why the country is warming, and what must be done to limit the effects. From the summary statements:
Headline 1: "Canada has warmed over the past 75 years due to emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities. Over this period Canada has warmed by 2.0°C and Canada’s North has warmed by 2.6°C."
Headline 2: "Canada has warmed rapidly over the past 50 years, consistent with rapid global warming. Since 1970, Canada has warmed nearly twice as fast as the global average, and the Canadian Arctic has warmed three times as fast as the global average."
Bush, E., Ehrman, A., Ballard, M., Dawson, J., Flato, G., & Hunter, A. (2026). Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026. (pp. 2.2, 2.4, 4.2). Government of Canada.
Sam Abernethy, et al came out a week later, with the paper titled, Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced
greenhouse gas emissions, pointing to a significant deficiency in climate modeling tools in use around the world. A new category, secondary warming factors, or Warming-Induced Effects (WIE) have been identified and assessed, noted missing from most global warming forecasting. The secondary factors accelerating global warming include sudden release of methane gas from thawing permafrost, carbon release from wetlands, the release of carbon dioxide from forests on fire and the GHGs released from the decomposition of organic waste. As wetlands and forests normally function as natural carbon sinks, the fact that they have flipped, now releasing GHG's needs to be reflected in the models. Abernethy warns the true temperature rise could be 20 to 30% higher than we have been expecting.
IOP Publishing Ltd. 10 September 2026. Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental Research Letters, Volume 21, Number 17. Citation Sam Abernethy et al.
A brief history of climate science
Just over two hundred years ago, the French mathematician Joseph Fourier calculated the energy balance of Earth as heat units of solar energy in less heat units of solar energy out. Fourier observed the various gases in the atmosphere interfering with the escape of heat units, decades later coined "greenhouse effect" Irish physicist, John Tyndall. By 1896, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius designed the first climate model, projecting the changes expected as the temperature rises over time. (Brittanica Timeline of Climate Change).
The historic climate record locked in layers of polar ice has been studied by climate paleontologists, showing prior warming trends as a slow buildup of GHGs from natural sources, reaching a tipping point, are followed by rapid cooling and ice ages that appear to have reset the planetary system. In this current warming period, human-induced factors, called anthropological effects are driving a steeper temperature rise over a relatively short period of time, compared with prior warming trends.
Climate monitoring tools have advanced over the decades. American climate scientist Charles Keeling developed a tool to track CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, giving a key indicator and reference for communicating changes over time. Keeling measured atmospheric CO2 at 315 ppm in 1960 and 337 ppm in 1980. The latest recorded CO2 concentration is 425.76 ppm.
See the Keeling Curve, here.
Energy balance remains a bedrock metric of climate science. Public and privately funded monitoring stations observe and record atmospheric elements, including temperature, plotting millions of local data points over time. Scientists from every nation contribute local observations to the agencies managing the consolidation of the raw data, populating the global climate forecasting models. These models show most of the surplus heat has been absorbed by the oceans. The warming of the oceans has been contributing to loss of coral reefs, changing of the currents and migratory patterns, the melting of polar ice, acidification and desalination of sea water and the slowing of the over-turning circulation that maintains a comfortable climate in the temperate zones.
In the late 1980's world leaders organized in response to the certainty of human induced global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed in 1988, organizing teams of scientists from the corners of the globe to share their observations, measurements of atmospheric elements. The scientists were commissioned to meet and discuss the trajectory of warming, reporting their findings and implications to world leaders. Armed with the data, elected leaders of the nations planned a global response. Commitments were made to cut GHG's, especially in the energy sector, in accordance with the ability of each nation. The world's largest cities likewise committed to climate policies and investments, improving public transit, addressing the heat efficiency of buildings and reducing waste.
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the organizing body for international cooperation on climate action. In 2015, representatives of 195 countries gathered in Paris, agreeing together on the evidence presented by hundreds of climate scientists, to cut domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in keeping with a temperature change well below 2 degrees Celsius of the pre-industrial average, preferably no more than 1.5 degrees. The Paris Agreement, like other UN Coventions, is legally binding on the signatories, who voluntarily submit to international authority and enforcement of their climate action pledges. Further, climate action commitments are expected to increase every five years. These plans, if deployed as committed, would have altered the composition of atmospheric gases enough to stabilize the average temperature.
In 2020, the USA withdrew from the Paris Agreement, leaving 194 nations to shoulder the burden of GHG reductions to arrest the warming trend. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is an annual gathering of UNFCCC signatories, the Parties, the decision-making body for global climate action. The Parties gather once a year to "stocktake" global progress on climate change mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage. In 2023, the 28th conference recorded "a new, more drastic response to the global climate crisis" with new emissions guidelines calculated for keeping warming to a 1.5-degree max. New calculations for GHG's emissions redux: a 43% cut from the 2019 levels by 2030. The decision taken to dig in deeper and limit warming to 1.5 degrees was determined on the basis of climate forecasts; the severity of weather effects and increase of natural disasters triggered by further heating was determined to be too costly to bear.
In spite of best efforts by the Parties, the 1.5 C target was blown in 2024. Some analysts feel this signals the failure of COP and the whole climate adaptation and mitigation effort, while others remain optimistic that GHG reduction plans are working. Every fraction of a degree avoided, matters.
The North American energy sector remains heavily dependent on GHG-producing fossil fuels. The UN Climate Summit scores the Parties on the basis of delivery on their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Mexico is commended for passing National Climate Change Laws, however falls short in area of air pollution and waste issues. Mexico's climate ambition is rated "insufficient", only "partially on track" to fulfill its Paris Agreement commitments. Canada is likewise assessed "insufficient" in climate ambition relative to NDCs, and "unlikely" to fulfill Paris Agreement pledges. Canada got a nod from UN Climate Summit for pledging $450 million to the Global Climate Fund, while receiving criticism for promoting false solutions: carbon capture, utilization and storage programs, and hydrogen projects. According to UN Climate Summit assessment, Canada needs to adopt policies to keep the 1.5°C target alive as well as limiting the overshoot. Canada has committed to ending public subsidies to the fossil fuel industry and transitioning to a 100 percent zero-emissions electricity grid by 2035.
The USA has withdrawn from voluntary participation in the Paris Agreement, as of 2020. As such, there is no UN Climate Summit report card for the USA. The next meeting of COP, COP31 is coming up next month in Turkiye.
Looking into the forces at play in the US formal decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, and Canada's haltingly slow progress on commitments made, we need look no further than the fossil fuel industry itself. In Canada, the fossil fuel industry expanded 89% during the first thirty years of the international effort to curb global warming, 1990 to 2021. According to the UN Climate Summit, Canada's oil and gas industry posted profits of $38 billion in 2022, while government contributed 20 billion in subsidies.
Climate change denial seeped into the court of public opinion in the first decade of the new millenium. Seeds of doubt were scattered through the halls of power in Ottawa and Washington, DC paving an off-ramp from climate commitments. According to journalist and author James Hoggan, the oil and gas industry associations and big multinational oil companies hired "experts" to question the consensus of climate science. Gallup reported in March 2009 41% of Americans felt the risks of climate change had not been reported fairly. Doubt in the climate science has allowed the status quo to continue, the burning of fossil fuels is still number one in North America.
International Energy Agency (IAE) reports Canada's 2024 overall domestic energy mix overwhelmingly fossil fuel driven, at 88%. Canada's largest province, Ontario, shut down its last coal-fired electrical plant in 2014, however coal still contributes 4.5% of the Canada's energy. Primary oil drives 52.5% of electric generation and natural gas fuels 30.8%. In the renewables category, hydro accounts for a little over 5%, with nuclear, wind, solar and other making up the remaining 7% nationally.
International Energy Agency, Where does Canada get its energy? Table Domestic Energy Production in Canada, 2024. https://www.iea.org/countries/canada/energy-mix
"In the United States, most (about 74%) human-caused (anthropogenic) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions come from burning fossil fuels—coal, natural gas, and petroleum—for energy use."
- US Energy Information Administration, Energy and the environment explained: Where greenhouse gases come from. The Basics.
Human contributions to the greenhouse effect come from all sectors, the vast majority from the energy industry, by the burning of fossil fuels.
World Resources Institute, Climate Watch Data
Next to the energy sector, agriculture contributes the highest emissions, as well as being the highest user of fresh water resources. Industrial agricultural practices such as the injection of anhydrous ammonia (NH3) fertilizer into the soil release the stable, solid carbon that absorbs and stores "green water", soil moisture. The loss of carbon from the soil not only drives warming, it cancels temperature-stabilizing green water essential for mitigating wildfire, drought and flood risk.
Shifting industrial agriculture through government policy and climate action mandates has been a contentious issue in many countries with huge farmer protests in the international news. Canada has committed to an agricultural fertilizer emissions reduction target of 30% from 2020 levels by 2030, however has done very little to implement or enforce the targets.
In April of 2024, Canada's Auditor General found no progress had been made by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada toward the 30% reduction target, leaving 6 seasons to make it happen. The Auditor General's report says, "To ensure that Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada can meaningfully contribute to Canada’s 2030 and 2050 climate change targets, including the fertilizer and methane emission reduction commitments, the department should finalize and implement a sustainable agriculture strategy." To date, no such strategy has been offered. Three seasons remain before 2030.
The Anthropocene Era
The current era, beginning with the first nuclear detonations, has been named for the dominance of human impacts that have distorted the planetary system. Human land use, changes in bio-geochemical cycles, and the extent of biodiversity loss in the current era far surpass the rate of natural changes observed throughout the fossil record.
From a documentary by Little Dot Studios Network of the UK, including interviews with Dr Rolf Schmidt, Collection Manager of Invertebrate Paleontology at the Melbourne Museum, Dr. Anne Marie Tosolini, Paleobotanist at Melbourne University and Professor Jeffrey Stillwell, Paleontologist at Monash University in Melbourne, we learn about "The Great Acceleration". Our activities on Earth, specifically human development, pollution, deforestation and consumption have triggered a deadly cascade on par with most destructive events noted in millions of years of the fossil record. These factors are pushing vital ecosystems to and beyond the natural tipping points. According to the contributors, the 6th mass extinction event has already impacted 75% of terrestrial habitats 66% of marine habitats, interrupted food chains, changed weather patterns and disrupted ocean currents. The extent of biodiversity loss, ~200 invertebrates extinct in 100 years is 1000 times the background extinction rate in the fossil record.
World Wildlife Fund is another well respected organization referring openly to the Sixth Mass Extinction Event. From the WWF website, "Unlike previous extinction events caused by natural phenomena, the sixth mass extinction is driven by human activity, primarily (though not limited to) the unsustainable use of land, water, and energy, and climate change."
The Stockholm Resilience Center was founded by Johan Rockström with 28 internationally renowned scientists proposing a modeling and Earth monitoring framework based on nine planetary boundaries:
- Climate Change
- Novel Entities
- Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
- Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
- Ocean Acidification
- Bio-GeoChemical Flows
- Freshwater Change
- Land System Change
- Biosphere Integrity
The nine boundaries are interdependent, therefore the framework is assessed together. All nine were fully assessed for the first time in 2023, with application to science, policy development, and practice. The framework "highlights the rising security risks from human pressure on nine critical global processes that regulate the stability and resilience of the Earth. Human activities have pushed Earth beyond its Safe Operating Space. The planet's natural resilience is weakening: Global warming is accelerating, ecosystems are showing clear signs of degradation, and early warning signs of tipping points are emerging in key systems."
Global Water Bankruptcy
According to the authors of the Jan 2026 report, Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era , we can no longer assume a short-term water crisis that we can manage our way out of. The largely unmitigated impact of global warming on the world's water resources can no longer be managed to recovery.
Declaring Global Water Bankruptcy is not an exercise in rhetorical escalation. It is a necessary act of diagnosis. Without naming the condition accurately and adopting a proper discourse, governance will continue to be organized around the wrong question: how to "get through" a crisis and go back to how things were, rather than how to manage a permanent, post-crisis state and transform its institutions to establish a fresh, more sustainable relationship between societies and water.
UNU-INWEH Report: Madani, K. (2026). Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post-Crisis Era. United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH), Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada.
The report goes on to say nations and communities must "confront (water) overshoot with transparent water accounting, enforceable limits, and protection of the water-related natural capital that produces and stores water - the aquifers, wetlands, soils, rivers, and glaciers." The skills required to manage extreme water stress and adapt personal expectations of abundant clean water availability have not yet landed in North America, where water sufficiency has been taken for granted.
Consider the case of the Colorado River
A case of over-consumption in western USA, the Colorado River has supplied hydro-electric power for 40 million people for ninety years, supplies irrigation touching more than 5 million acres of agricultural land, supplies domestic water for cities and towns in seven States. The tail end of this waterway runs through Mexico, after diversions for agriculture and domestic water, leaving a dust-bowl delta with no flow reaching the Sea of Cortez. Over the last 25 years, lower than average annual precipitation in the Upper basin reduced the flow volume each year. While the Upper Basin states cut water deliveries to rights-holders according to winter snowpack, there was no reduction of water taking by the Lower Basin states of Nevada, California and Arizona. Decades of over-consumption has depleted Colorado River reservoirs near to the point of no return for power generation.
The current management agreement has the Lower Basin states cutting water consumption by 3 million acre-feet, a steep adjustment in a very short time is expected to have an impact on the availability of produce this winter. The majority of North America's winter vegetables are grown in southern Arizona, where the irrigation has been reduced by around 30%. If we do not see empty produce shelves in the grocery stores this winter, the prices may be higher.
See the WT article, Decades of drought and over-consumption have reduced Colorado River reservoirs to critically low levels , here.
Data centers and impact on global warming
Electrical engineer Andrea Marinoni has published his research on the heat island effects observed around 8000 data center facilities globally. Remote temperature sensors recording ambient air and ground temperatures logged warming effects as high as 9C/16F, as far as 6 miles from the data center.
Marinoni, Andrea. Associate Professor of the Department of Engineering, Applied Remote Sensing at Earth Observation group, Centre for Integrated Remote Sensing and Forecasting for Arctic Operations (CIRFA), Dept. of Physics and Technology, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway, Leader of Earth Observation Innovation area of Visual Intelligence, SFI.
NVIDIA Director of Sustainability, Josh Parker reported in June 2026 on the NVIDIA blog site, the new generation of processors will function at much higher temperatures than the current and past processors. The advanced chip technology has been touted an advancement in data center cooling technology. The implication for data center resource use being, less energy and water for cooling. With future data centers able to run at higher temperatures without melting down the processors, it see,ms logical to anticipate a greater heat island effect. Machine learning data centers have come on the world scene so rapidly, their specific impact has not yet been included in climate modeling. WT asked Dr. Marinoni to comment on how new processor technology could alter the heat island effect he has been studying. Marinoni had not responded by the time of publication.
www.blogs.nvidia.com. Josh Parker, "Hotter Than a Hot Tub: The 45°C Breakthrough to Cool AI's Biggest Machines", June 21, 2026
Individuals impact on climate - Earth Overshoot
Individuals remain steeped in excess consumerism, maintaining the damaging trend of over-consumption at the household level. Global Footprint Network (GFN) monitors "Earth Overshoot", communicating for the purpose of warning and encouraging a change in personal consumption patterns.
Earth Overshoot is the rate at which the global population has burned through a year's worth of renewable resources.
In 2026, 8.3 billion people of planet Earth had used up a year's worth of resources by July 30. For the rest of this year, further consumption depletes the natural capital bank, using up ecological assets that cannot be replaced in our lifetimes. According to the GFN, "Humans use as much ecological resources as if we lived on 1.7 Earths. Americans in particular, consume the annual resources of five Earths. The Ecological Footprint and calculation methodology of GFN is accepted by many countries as a "metric that compares the resource demand of individuals, governments, and businesses against Earth's capacity for biological regeneration."
Reducing consumer demand for plastics has had limited success. In spite of health warnings about the dangerous chemicals leaching from plastics, the attraction of cheap manufactured goods, along with engineered obsolescence and promotion of frequent style changes has only escalated global demand for plastics. General population health decline and increasing reliance on pharmaceuticals is another factor limiting societal transition from fossil fuels. At the individual level, people can choose to curtail consumption of plastics and engage in natural health and wellness practises.
See WT article on contamination from plastics and forever chemicals, here.
What more can an individual do to prepare for the warmer climate?
A research paper by Azad, Firestone and Young, published in the Journal of Food Protection, March 2026 says more frequent extreme weather events are contributing to more frequent power outages.
From the report, Several studies in the U.S. have explored population preparedness and food and water safety practices during power outages using surveys and focus groups (Dominianni et al., 2018, Godwin et al., 2010, Kosa et al., 2011, Kosa et al., 2014). An online national survey conducted by Kosa et al. (2014) found that a high proportion of Americans were not very prepared for extended power outages at home.
In terms of preparedness, Dominianni et al. (2018) found that less than half of New York City residents reported feeling prepared for a power outage. For scale, New York City is the largest city in the U.S., with over 8 million residents (NYC Department of City Planning, 2025) Although these studies provide valuable insights regarding population preparedness and safe food handling practices during power outages, there is a lack of data surrounding this topic in Canada, as there has only been one focus group that has explored this topic (Thiraviyarajah et al., 2025).
Emergency Preparedness official government sources in USA and Canada indicate households should keep 3 days emergency food and water supplies as the minimum. Stock up on dry and canned goods, and keep extra water on hand, a gallon per day for each member of the household. As severe storms have taken out the power for two weeks in the city and up to a month in rural locations, citizens are urged to do what they can to be ready for longer disruptions. Establish support networks with neighbors nearby, as friends and relatives further away may not be able to assist.
The light at the end of the tunnel - we still have time
In spite of our failure to cut emissions on schedule for keeping global warming below 2C, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. The one natural carbon sink that still holds a promise of sequestering excess carbon in the atmosphere has yet to be mobilized en masse for this vital ecological service.
In 2019, the IPCC released a report calling for worldwide changes in the management of agricultural soil. The IPCC scientists calculated a .4% increase in soil carbon around the world will remove a significant portion of the CO2 gas built up in the atmosphere over a century of burning fossil fuels. The activation of mass surface area of agricultural soil calls for a widespread acceptance of a new agricultural management system.
Many hundreds of farmers in North America have been successfully adjusting their field management practices while maintaining yield, with no loss of income. Referred to as Regenerative Agriculture, the transition involves changes in management, including a reduction in the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides (reducing Novel Entities, one of the nine planetary boundaries). The foundations of this system include:
- least disturbance of soil (no-till or minimal till)
- green ground cover (maintaining photosynthesis as long as possible)
- increasing crop diversity (variety in plant functional groups and species)
- incorporating ruminant grazing livestock (or, where livestock infrastructure is lacking, applying the microbial balance and biodiversity similar to that found in the ruminant gut)
Where soil has not been inundated with synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, naturally occurring, beneficial microorganisms break down organic matter, digesting cellulose, making nutrients available for the next crop. Green plants naturally convert CO2 to liquid carbon through photosynthesis. Where the soil has not been treated with chemical biocides, the microbiome calls for the release of liquid carbon through plant roots, where it becomes fixed in solid, stable form.
Solid carbon in the soil holds four times its weight in water. Higher carbon content in soil soaks up and stores "green water" or soil moisture, a vital ecological service performed by healthy soil. Green water is a metric tracked by the UN University of Water, Environment and Health, a component of the aforementioned report on the global state of water. Green water, or soil moisture, brought about by regenerative agricultural practises, stabilizes local weather, prevents desertification, mitigates drought and flood, and deters the spread of fire.
Each and every person that eats, every family that shops for products made from grains, legumes, oilseeds can influence the management practices on agricultural land with your purchasing decisions. A group of forty multinational consumer packaged goods manufacturers have already committed in principle to sourcing ingredients grown in the regenerative manner described above. Ask your grocer or bulk dry goods supplier about the nutrient density of dry grains and legumes, and ask for higher nutrient density from Regenerative producers where these can be found.
Find out more about Regenerative Agriculture, here.
After we have done all we can to revive the full functioning of our planet, we may not want to return to fast food, fast fashion and independent living, isolated from our communities. The current climate situation calls for all hands on deck, sharing skills and supplies with others in need and finally coming to terms with the fragility of our habitat. We are dependent on this rock called Earth, we cannot simply launch away to another planet and live the wonderful life we have right here, at home.
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