9/18/2024
WT Staff
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September 18, 2024 updated 129 pm EDT
Revisiting NOAA Storm Forecast 2024
A quiet weather day, according to the National Weather Service, no hazardous weather outlooks in effect for New York. In a moment of weather calm, we check in with the National Hurricane Center to see what may be brewing off shore.
Tropical Depression Gordon away off in the Atlantic no longer has a trackable center, formerly Tropical Storm disintegrating to an unorganized group of unsettled weather moving north-northeast and 3.5 mph. Gordon presents no risk to land, though conditions into the weekend could yet bring Gordon back to Tropical Storm status. By midweek, the National Hurricane Center reports no risk to land.
Not to be caught off-guard, the named storms are not the only ones to watch. An unnamed storm, "Potential Tropical Storm Eight" managed to deliver twenty-plus inches of rain on North Carolina Monday, trapping dozens of people and causing enormous flooding damage. By any name, a storm is a storm, localized heavy rain can produce flash flooding.
From the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) storm season projection article of May 23, 2024, NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, 85% probability of above average storm season with 17 to 25 named storms, 4 to 7 of these being hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Here we are, just past the midpoint of storm season 2024, we are tracking the 7th named storm, Gordon, still on the radar active in the Atlantic. The latter half of the season is expected to bring on the heavy storm activity. FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks says, "Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today. Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow."
Streamflow Situation from the USGS network of streamflow gauges in New York
The majority of gauges report normal to above seasonal normal water levels in the major rivers and tributaries of New York midweek, the 17 watersheds peppered with below to much below normal sites with no significant rainfall or storms in the forecast. The drought map includes four areas rated below normal, one in each of the drainage basins. Lake Ontario watershed of the northwest basin remains below normal through Niagara, Orleans and northwest Monroe Counties, along with the Niagara River - Lake Erie basin below normal along the north of Cattaraugus County. The central drainage basin's Lower Hudson River watershed is yet rated below normal through Putnam and Westchester Counties, downgraded from moderate drought this week. In the Upper Hudson River watershed, Essex, Hamilton and Warren Counties have surface area rated below normal again today. As of this report, there are no severe weather events in the forecast, no extreme high flows or floods, and no first percentile low flows recorded in the network.
Safe Drinking Water Advisories
Greene County: Catskill came under a BWA Friday following a water main break resulting in a BWA for residents on Broome Street. As of this report, we have not confirmed the status of this advisory. More to follow.
From the Catskill Water System Annual Water Quality Report 2023, the system serves approximately 8000 people through 2270 connections. Raw water is sourced from Potic Reservoir, collecting surface water from an area approximately fourteen square miles around the Town of Coxsackie in the Lower Hudson River watershed. The finished water produced by Catskill Water met all state water quality regulations, however some homes are experiencing lead levels at the tap above safe standard. A check of the NYS HABs notifications shows no HAB activity in the Potic Reservoir in 2024.
WT HAB Tracker from the satellite monitoring program of the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science(NCCOS), Cyanobacteria Assessment Network (CyAN) and State sources where available
New York
Three hundred and seventy-nine HABs on the notifications board Wednesday afternoon, up from 316 this morning. Marsh Creek is posting the first HAB of the season, Bradley Brook Reservoir is back on the active list, joining Swinging Bridge, Alcove and Basic Creek Reservoirs confirmed with bluegreen over the weekend. Skaneateles Lake has a bunch of new bluegreen reports, the lake sustaining fifty HABs at this report. Updates are in progress, the latest impacted water body list is available here.
The latest satellite image of Lake Champlain was captured September 17, this image is mostly cloud obscured with no HAB activity visible between clouds. Wind speed information is not available for Lake Champlain, a wind speed above 4 mph can cause the bloom mass to sink below the surface, out of the range of detection of the imaging equipment. A clear image captured Sept 16 shows Baie Missisquoi with a narrow band of HAB up along the northeast shore in Canada, a hot spot over 1 million cells per ml. St Albans Bay HAB appears in the inside of the bay along shore, a small localized bloom at 600 to 700 thousand cells per ml.
See the NCCOS color image of Lake Champlain here.
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