9/25/2024
WT Staff
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September 25, 2024 updated 345 pm EDT
HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9A: National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2 pm EDT Sept 25:
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast
by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to slow
down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United
States Friday and Saturday.
HELENE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY
LOCATION...22.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:
- Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
- Tampa Bay
- Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
Anclote River to Mexico Beach
Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:
- West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:
- Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
- Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
- Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
- West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
- Flamingo northward to South Santee River
- Lake Okeechobee
- Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
- Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone on the web, here
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, here.
WIND: WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward
across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.
Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba today.
RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. A 24-hour rainfall total of 8.60 inches (218.4 mm) was recently reported in
Embalse Herradura, Pinar del Rio, Cuba, by the Meteorological
Service of Cuba.
Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas
of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of
steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Helene, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, here.
See the Flash Flood Risk graphic, here.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
Forecaster Berg.
Streamflow Situation from the USGS network of streamflow gauges in New York
Normal to above seasonal normal water levels continue through the south midweek while the north rivers and streams shift downward, running normal to below normal. West interior and central drainage basins measure normal to much below seasonal normal water levels with a new low recorded on Seneca River, running 1st percentile near Baldwinsville. Check the map to the right for brown tags blue tags indicating 1st percentile low flows. Rondout Creek remains at extreme low another day.
The drought map has gripped an area of Upper Hudson River watershed, south Hamilton County now rated with moderate drought. Moderate drought applies to lower Oswego River channel in central Oswego County. The west interior Finger Lakes region remains below normal, Black River and Upper Hudson River watersheds remain below normal along with upper Lake Champlain watershed, rated below normal overnight. Lake Ontario minor tributaries west section in Niagara, Orleans and west Monroe Counties remains in moderate drought. Niagara River - Lake Erie watershed, Allegheny River watershed have surface area rated below normal.
See Tuesday's streamflow situation, here.
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